The Oscars Best Supporting Actor category is one that has yet to be narrowed down. There are a couple of sure-things. There is also plenty of upset potential. The well of actors in the category runs deep. Let’s try to figure it out!

The Nominees:

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name

In the Hunt:

• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Jason Mitchell – Mudbound
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
• Mark Rylance – Dunkirk

 

Dafoe and Rockwell are in. No debate. Hammer is highly likely. Jenkins is a relatively safe bet.

It’s that fifth slot that is giving me trouble. Stuhlbarg and Harrelson are strong performers in movies that are carried by strong performances. But their co-stars in this same category are more of a sure-thing. The Academy may skip over both of them to give another movie some attention.

I think that movie could be Mudbound. It is an ensemble film with a number of strong performances. The Academy may want to honor it somehow, and Mitchell is the choice. The film is also likely to receive a nomination by way of Mary J. Blige, though.

I still find All the Money in the World to be a questionable award season pick. Plummer does a fine job in the film for the speedy turnaround, and there is a spot in the top five that he could fill. Maybe it is because I would personally rather see Stuhlbarg than Plummer in that spot, but I can’t picture the top five with Plummer in it.

Either way, I put Stuhlbarg in the top five with nothing other than caution.