I don’t want to say Best Supporting Actress is already a two-horse race. But Best Supporting Actress is already a two-horse race.

The Nominees:

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
• Allison Janney – I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Will Win: Allison Janney

Could Win: Laurie Metcalf

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

 

As much as their performances are noteworthy, Octavia Spencer and Lesley Manville are not going to win this award. Mary J. Blige perhaps has marginally better chances, but this race is really between Janney and Metcalf.

Here’s the thing. Janney has been winning everywhere else. The Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAGs. All went to Janney. The cards are in her favor. She is the most likely to win the Oscar.

But wait. Just wait. Laurie Metcalf’s performance in Lady Bird is more well-rounded, emotionally resonant, and memorable than Janney’s. As great as Janney is, can we agree that Metcalf has the better performance?

In all likelihood, Allison Janney will win. But on my ballot, I’m going with the upset. Metcalf might be the safest upset pick of the night.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)