Best Actress has what is perhaps the widest gap between the front-runner and the other contenders. I mean, France McDormand is cleaning up from award show to award show. It is difficult to see anyone else taking that Oscar.

But, you know, I have to keep all other options on the table. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be an article to write.

The Nominees:

• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep – The Post

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan

Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins

 

Imagine for a second that McDormand’s performance in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri doesn’t exist. For some reason, the Academy decided to only have four nominees in Best Actress in 2018. Who wins in this scenario?

Saoirse Ronan is a tantalizing pick. Lady Bird being the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and Ronan’s performance leading the way, it is easy to see a path in which she wins. We already know that the Academy likes Ronan; she’s been nominated twice before.

The biggest front-runner, aside from Three Billboards, is arguably The Shape of Water. The Shape of Water is far out ahead in total nominations with a whopping 13. Hawkins gives a great, almost entirely silent performance. If the things start falling The Shape of Water‘s way in other categories, it could trend toward Hawkins as well.

Again, this is in a world where Frances McDormand in Three Billboards doesn’t exist. As it stands today, don’t put your money anywhere but with McDormand.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)