Not unlike his Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri co-star Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell seems to have this award locked up. But there are no sure things in this world.

The Nominees:

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Could Win: Willem Dafoe

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

 

Rockwell and McDormand have had the same trajectory this award season: Golden Globe, Critics Choice award, SAG award. Add to that that Three Billboards won the ensemble award from SAG, and you have a pretty impenetrable argument for both of them.

So let’s try the same experiment as we did for Best Actress. Eliminate Rockwell from contention, and who would win?

It’s Willem Dafoe, right? It’s got to be. The rest of the category just doesn’t stack up to Rockwell and Dafoe. Jenkins could contend, maybe, but Plummer and Harrelson weren’t even in the conversation before the Golden Globe nominations came out.

So put your money on Rockwell, and keep your eye on Dafoe. He could upset, however unlikely a case that may be.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)