For whatever reason, Best Supporting Actor is, year after year, the easiest acting race to predict. It is often narrowed in on one or two candidates long before the Screen Actors Guild announce their awards. The SAGs just act to solidify the already established front-runner.
2019, by and large, shows the same conditions. The race is already narrowed down, and it is not hard to pick a winner before the SAGs even happen. There is always upset potential, but this race is much more predictable than the other categories.
The Best Actor race is a tight one this year. You have fan favorites like A Star is Born. Crowd-pleasers like Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. Transformative performances in Christian Bale and Rami Malek. And Willem Dafoe is in there, too. Because why not?
Early on in the year, it looked like Lady Gaga had Best Actress in the bag. A Star is Born hit strong, much stronger than The Wife. Over time, A Star is Born has cooled off a bit, particularly following its near shut-out at the Golden Globes. Glenn Close, as a result, has risen back into the conversation as a front-runner.
Nothing is certain, however, and an acting front-runner cannot truly be claimed as a true front-runner until they pick up the SAG award. Until that time, we can only speculate.
Update 2/5: As award season continues, it appears as though the stock of A Star is Born is dropping and dropping. While I still think it has an outside shot at Best Picture, Roma has risen to take its place as the consensus front-runner. The Best Picture race is rather up in the air, given the split voting from the guilds, but Roma and Green Book are rising to the top of the heap, with upset potential from the likes of Blackkklansman and The Favourite.
Oscar season is in full swing, and the Best Picture race is heating up fast. Green Book is on the rise. A Star is Born might be on the decline. Can Roma sweep? Will Black Panther upset?
There is always some overlap between the two sound categories. Sound Editing is the creation of foley. Sound Mixing is the recording and mixing of the soundtrack. They are two distinct aspects of sound production, but often if a film does one well it does the other similarly well.
That said, a well-mixed film may not require a lot of sound effect production. A musical, perhaps. A film may require a heavy amount of foley, which usually means the mix is harder to master. An action movie, perhaps. A lot goes into the soundtrack, making it hard sometimes to discern whether the Academy will honor films in both categories, one, or none.
The Golden Globes telecast is right around the corner (Sunday, January 6), and Oscar season is in full swing. In a couple of weeks, the Academy will announce its nominations (Tuesday, January 22). In preparation for that, CineFiles has put together a series of predictions in (most of) the 24 categories.
Note: these articles are predictions for what films will get nominated in each category, not who will win in each category.
With the WGA nominations still a few days out, it is a bit difficult to get the full picture on the Oscar race in Best Original Screenplay. There are the Golden Globes to go on, but those nominations don’t always translate.
There are a few great screenplays that could be snubbed, and a few big Oscar contenders that are more likely to get the nod.
Generally, the Best Screenplay categories are filled with Best Picture hopefuls and, when there is room, one or two “honorable mention” choices. These are films that don’t necessarily get the love they might deserve in other categories, but the WGA and the Academy want to honor their merits in some way.
In the Original Screenplay category, this is something like The Big Sick or 20th Century Women. Both are great films that could have competed in other categories, but for one reason or another didn’t quite make the cut. For whatever reason, the screenwriting branch seems to be more forgiving of these clever little films.
Best Costume Design is an award that traditionally has gone to the most showy, flowery, and baroque costuming. Of course, there are always exceptions to this idea. Nominees are often period piece films. But not always. There is a fairly clear formula, but there is wiggle room therein.
There were a lot of visually appealing films in 2018. Films with a diversity of aesthetic styles. There’s something disorienting in First Man. Something queasy in The Favourite. Something slow and crafty in Roma. Something sumptuous and classical in Cold War. Etcetera. Etcetera.
With that being said, narrowing down the final Oscar shortlist to five is no short order. And with the American Society of Cinematographers not dropping their nominees in this category until January 7, we’re flying a bit blind here. But I wouldn’t have it any other way.
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